Agentes de apoio à argumentação e decisão em grupo

Tese de Doutoramento Ramo de Informática - Área de Inteligência ArtificialA tomada de decisão é um processo cognitivo que conduz à selecção de um plano de acção, de entre vários; trata-se do resultado de uma construção psicológica que varia em função do indivíduo ou indivíduos. No contexto organizacional, ocorre por vezes uma profusão de problemas de decisão. Facto que pode estar relacionado com disfunções da própria organização, como, por exemplo, downsizing, restrições orçamentais, excesso de trabalho, ou que pode simplesmente ser o resultado de uma evolução natural sem que lhe seja possível atribuir um motivo em particular. Por outro lado, a tomada de decisão activa implica a escolha responsável, e pode ser realizada individualmente ou em grupo, o que nos leva a considerar que cada problema transporta em si uma oportunidade que vai para além do próprio problema, i.e., um esforço deliberado para ampliar as nossas vivências significa um passo em frente no sentido de tomar decisões com qualidade. Os grupos trocam ideias, envolvem-se em processos de argumentação e contra-argumentação, negoceiam, cooperam, colaboram ou discutem metodologias e/ou técnicas para resolver problemas. A Tese que pretendemos defender é a de que, através de um Sistema Multiagente, podemos modelar e simular os participantes de uma reunião de tomada de decisão em grupo, suportando desse modo o organizador da reunião ou qualquer dos outros participantes. Pretendemos ainda provar que lidando com informação incompleta, considerando aspectos sociais e emotivos e tendo em conta os processos de argumentação, o nosso modelo irá permitir simular melhor a realidade e dar um melhor suporte à tomada de decisão em grupo. Neste contexto foi desenvolvido o trabalho apresentado nesta tese. Foi proposto um modelo de um Sistema Multiagente capaz de lidar com a problemática da tomada de decisão em grupo e em particular um arquétipo para os agentes participantes, onde foram considerados os seguintes requisitos: capacidades argumentativas, características antropomórficas, capacidade de representação de informação incompleta e competências emocionais. Desenvolveram-se vários algoritmos de suporte ao processo de geração, selecção e avaliação dos argumentos, bem como várias estratégias de actuação para os agentes participantes. De acordo com as especificações elaboradas, foi desenvolvido um protótipo de um simulador de tomada de decisão em grupo. Para aplicação do protótipo foram seleccionados os problemas multi-critério, que podem ser mais ou menos complexos e envolver tomadas de decisão mais ou menos polémicas. O protótipo serviu de base à realização de várias experiências que permitiram tirar algumas conclusões sobre o trabalho desenvolvido e apontar linhas de acção futuras. Importa referir a importância de uma boa representação do perfil dos participantes na reunião e o facto do Sistema Multiagente desenvolvido dever ser visto apenas como um Simulador, desempenhando a função de um Sistema de Apoio à Decisão, e não a função de um sistema que substitua o ser humano nesta actividade nobre e complexa.Decision making is the cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among variations; indeed, decision making is said to be a psychological construct, depending on the individual or individuals. For example, in an organizational setting, at one time or another, organizations develop an over-abundance of decision problems. Sometimes they can be linked to organizational trauma, like downsizing, budget restraints or workload, or they may evolve over time with no apparent triggering event. On the other hand, active decision-making involves a responsible choice that one must make, either alone or in group, leading us to consider that each problem has hidden in it an opportunity so powerful that it literally dwarfs the problem itself, i.e., a deliberate effort to broaden our experiences is the single most helpful effort in making good decisions. Groups exchanges ideas, engage in a process of argumentation and counter-argumentation, negotiate, cooperate, collaborate or even discuss techniques and/or methodologies for problem solving. In this work we claim that through a Multiagent system it is possible to model and simulate the participants of a group decision making meeting, supporting the meeting facilitator or any other participants. In our model, the consideration of incomplete information, social and emotional aspects, as well as argumentation processes allow a better simulation of the reality and a better support to the group decision making activity. This is the context for the work developed in this dissertation. It is proposed a Multiagent System for modelling group decision making processes and an architecture for participant agents, where the following requisites were considered: argumentative capabilities, anthropomorphic characteristics, ability to represent incomplete information and emotional competences. To support the argumentation generation, selection and evaluation, several algorithms were proposed, and strategies were also developed to guide the participant agent’s behaviour. According to these specifications it was developed a prototype of a group decision making simulator. Multi-criteria problems were selected for the prototype application, since they can be more or less complex and involve decisions more or less polemic. The prototype has been used in several experiments leading to some conclusions and to the definition of future work. It is important to notice the importance of a good representation of the participants profile and the fact that the Multiagent System should be considered only as a simulator playing the role of a decision support system and not as a system that intend to substitute the meeting or even to substitute some meeting participant in this activity so noble an complex

Using satisfaction analysis to predict decision quality

One of the most important factors to determine the success of an organization is the quality of decisions made. In order to improve the decisions taken and to strengthen the competitiveness of organizations, systems such as Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) have been strongly developed and studied in recent decades. The amount of GDSS incorporating automatic negotiation mechanisms, such as argumentation, is increasing nowadays. The evaluation of these mechanisms and the understanding of their real benefits for the organizations is still a hard challenge. In this article, we propose a model that allows a GDSS to measure the participant’s satisfaction with the decision, considering aspects such as problem evaluation, personality, emotions and expectations. To create the model some assumptions are deducted from literature, as well as the premises needed to validate any decision satisfaction model. This model is intended to enable the understanding of the decision’s quality achieved with an argumentation system and to evaluate its capability to potentiate the decision’s quality. The proposed model validates all the assumptions found in the literature regarding the participant’s satisfaction.This work is part-funded by ERDF - European Regional Development Fund through the COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) and by National Funds through the FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028980 (PTDC/EEISII/1386/2012) and SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A general template to configure multi-criteria problems in Ubiquitous GDSS

The study of multi-criteria problems adapted to the context of Ubiquitous Group Decision Support Systems (UbiGDSS) is covered in the literature through very different perspectives and interests. There are scientific studies related to the multi-criteria problems that lie across argumentation-based negotiation, multi-agent systems, dialogues, etc. However, to perform most of these studies, a high amount of information is required. The usage of so much data or information that is difficult to collect or configure can bring good results in theoretical scenarios but can be impossible to use in the real world. In order to overcome these issues, we present in this paper a general template to configure multi-criteria problems adapted for the contexts of UbiGDSS that intends to be easy and fast to configure, appellative, intuitive, permits to collect a lot of data and helps the decision-maker transmitting his beliefs and opinions to the system. Our proposal includes three sections: Problem Data, Personal Configuration and Problem Configuration. We have developed a prototype with our template with the purpose to simulate the configuration of a multi-criteria problem. We invited real decision-makers to use our prototype in a simulated scenario and asked to them to fulfil a survey in the end in order to study our hypotheses. Our general template achieved good results and proved to be very perceptible and fast to configure.This work is part-funded by ERDF - European Regional Development Fund through the COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028980 (PTDC/EEISII/1386/2012) and by National Funds through the FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) with the João Carneiro PhD grant with the reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

UbiGDSS: a theoretical model to predict decision-makers’ satisfaction

The market globalization and the firms’ internationalization hinder the matching of the top managers’ agenda, making it difficult to meet in the same space or time. On the one hand, the appearance of Ubiquitous Group Decision Support Systems (UbiGDSS) enabled individuals to gather and make decisions in different spaces at different times, but on the other hand, originated problems related to the lack of human interaction. To understand how the arguments used can influence each of the decision-makers, what is their satisfaction regarding the decision made, and other affective issues such as emotions and mood, are some examples of that lack. In order to try to overcome this lack, we propose a theoretical model that is specially designed for agents, helping to understand the interactions impact on each agent and their satisfaction with the decision made.This work is supported by “GECAD strategic project”, “EKRUCAMI – EuropeKorea Research on Ubiquitous Computing and Ambient Intelligence” and by National Funds through FCT “Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia” under the projects: PEST-OE/EEI/UI0760/2014, 318878-FP7-PEOPLE and SFRH/BD/89697/2012 respectively.This work is supported by “GECAD strategic project”, “EKRUCAMI – EuropeKorea Research on Ubiquitous Computing and Ambient Intelligence” and by National Funds through FCT “Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia” under the projects: PEST-OE/EEI/UI0760/2014, 318878-FP7-PEOPLE and SFRH/BD/89697/2012 respectively.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Introducing dynamic argumentation to UbiGDSS

Supporting and representing the group decision-making process is a complex task that requires very specific characteristics. The current existing argumentation models cannot make good use of all the advantages inherent to group decision-making. There is no monitoring of the process or the possibility to provide dynamism to it. These issues can compromise the success of Group Decision Support Systems if those systems are not able to provide freedom and all necessary mechanisms to the decision-maker. We investigate the use of argumentation in a completely new perspective that will allow for a mutual understanding between agents and decision-makers. Besides this, our proposal allows to define an agent not only according to the preferences of the decision-maker but also according to his interests towards the decision-making process. We show that our definition respects the requirements that are essential for groups to interact without limitations and that can take advantage of those interactions to create valuable knowledge to support more and better.This work has been supported by COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043, by National Funds through the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foun-dation for Science and Technology) within the Projects UID/CEC/00319/2013, UID/EEA/00760/2013, and the João Carneiro PhD grant with the reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012 and by Project MANTIS - Cyber Physical System Based Proactive Collaborative Maintenance (ECSEL JU Grant nr. 662189).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Evaluating the perception of the decision quality in web-based group decision support systems: a theory of satisfaction

The future and success of organizations depend greatly on the quality of every decision made. It is known that most of the decisions in organizations are made in group. With the purpose to support the decision-makers anytime and anywhere, Web-based Group Decision Support Systems have been studied. The amount of Web-based Group Decision Support Systems incorporating automatic negotiation mechanisms such as argumentation is increasing nowadays. Usually, these systems/models are evaluated through mathematical proofs, number of rounds or seconds to propose (reach) a solution. However, those techniques do not say much in terms of decision quality. Here, we propose a model to predict the decision-makers’ satisfaction (perception of the decision quality), specially designed to deal with multi-criteria problems. Our model considers aspects such as: alternatives comparison, style of behaviour, emotions, mood and expectations. The proposed formulation matches the assumptions previously defined in the literature.This work was supported by COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043, by National Funds through the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within the Projects UID/CEC/00319/2013, UID/EEA/00760/2013, and the João Carneiro PhD Grant with the Reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Including credibility and expertise in group decision-making process: an approach designed for UbiGDSS

Supporting group decision-making when the decision-makers are spread around the world is a complex process. The mechanisms of automated negotiation, such as argumentation, can be used in Ubiquitous Group Decision Support Systems to help decision-makers find a solution based on their preferences. However, there are some other important issues that affect the decisionmaking process beyond typical preferences over criteria and alternatives. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that will allow agents to reason about self-expertise and other decision makers’ credibility. This way, we intend agents to achieve better quality and more consensual decisions. Our algorithm includes not only the decision-maker’s preferences but also his intentions in the process. By using the proposed model, agents achieved a stronger consensus in all scenarios that were considered and higher satisfaction levels in the most complex scenarios.This work was supported by COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043, by National Funds through the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within the Projects UID/CEC/00319/2013, UID/EEA/00760/2013, and the João Carneiro PhD Grant with the Reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Agent based simulation for group formation

Group decision making plays an important role in today’s organisations. The impact of decision making is so high and complex, that rarely the decision making process is made just by one individual. The simulation of group decision making through a Multi-Agent System is a very interesting research topic. The purpose of this paper it to specify the actors involved in the simulation of a group decision, to present a model to the process of group formation and to describe the approach made to implement that model. In the group formation model it is considered the existence of incomplete and negative information, which was identified as crucial to make the simulation closer to the reality

Dealing with agents’ behaviour in the decision-making process

Gathering a group of managers or executives (decision-makers) in a same place and at a same time is not an easy task. In fact, the decision-makers’ schedule is so tight that it becomes necessary to develop tools that will aid in the communication and in the decision-making process. The intelligent systems (IS) can be the solution to overcome these necessities. In literature, there have been appearing more and more IS that make use of multi agent systems (MAS) in order to represent real decision-makers in this type of systems. In our work we address the problem of how agents should behave during the decision-making process and what strategies they can follow to represent the interests of the decision-maker. We intend to define valid behaviours for agents in group decision-making context and to relate the theoretical behaviours definition with usual attitudes and acts that are relevant for this context. We define two dimensions and relate them with two facets based on the Five Factor Model. Then we propose the behaviours classification according three different levels (low, moderate and high) for each one of the dimensions. We use the value of the personality trait correspondent to each facet in order to classify our behaviours in the scale.This work is part-funded by ERDF - European Regional Development Fund through the COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) and by National Funds through the FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within project FCOMP-01-0124- FEDER-028980 (PTDC/EEISII/1386/2012) and SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Defining agents’ behaviour for negotiation contexts

Agents who represent participants in the group decision-making context require a certain number of individual traits in order to be successful. By using argumentation models, agents are capable to defend the interests of those who they represent, and also justify and support their ideas and actions. However, regardless of how much knowledge they might hold, it is essential to define their behaviour. In this paper (1) is presented a study about the most important models to infer different types of behaviours that can be adapted and used in this context, (2) are proposed rules that must be followed to affect positively the system when defining behaviours and (3) is proposed the adaptation of a conflict management model to the context of Group Decision Support Systems. We propose one approach that (a) intends to reflect a natural way of human behaviour in the agents, (b) provides an easier way to reach an agreement between all parties involved and (c) does not have high configuration costs to the participants. Our approach will offer a simple yet perceptible configuration tool that can be used by the participants and contribute to more intelligent communications between agents and makes possible for the participants to have a better understanding of the types of interactions experienced by the agents belonging to the system.This work is part-funded by ERDF - European Regional Development Fund through the COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028980 (PTDC/EEISII/1386/2012) and by National Funds through the FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) with the João Carneiro PhD grant with the reference SFRH/BD/89697/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio